Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 16.002694 18.237889 20.634149 23.389618 26.465947 29.790035 33.648820
2025-08-03 12.393370 15.383013 18.828876 23.075928 28.149985 33.997017 41.222909
2025-08-10 10.636353 13.948059 17.945759 23.092765 29.505880 37.192409 47.057292
2025-08-17 9.360590 12.896932 17.345788 23.298937 30.994113 40.536780 53.187359
2025-08-24 8.286517 11.927903 16.678537 23.253052 32.025621 43.226446 58.490210
2025-08-31 7.353858 11.027100 15.983903 23.059700 32.779063 45.521430 63.322365
2025-09-07 6.685835 10.407698 15.586998 23.190469 33.910037 48.298878 68.846730
2025-09-14 6.273227 10.103216 15.583339 23.833458 35.737933 52.054771 75.812152
2025-09-21 5.666716 9.447474 15.011624 23.602879 36.290544 54.045674 80.397488
2025-09-28 4.934272 8.526111 13.967806 22.590393 35.628296 54.260566 82.452625
2025-10-05 4.699054 8.362686 14.046809 23.245701 37.423535 58.030692 89.697266
2025-10-12 4.443527 8.140427 14.011300 23.709675 38.936670 61.432747 96.519511
2025-10-19 4.082842 7.718300 13.638563 23.636642 39.647612 63.715575 101.849140
2025-10-26 3.716278 7.252516 13.159107 23.357256 40.013905 65.487155 106.479943
2025-11-02 3.442005 6.921297 12.872405 23.361258 40.808494 67.917537 112.170288
2025-11-09 3.230013 6.682357 12.721567 23.574129 41.937920 70.896546 118.800328
2025-11-16 2.994841 6.377772 12.431907 23.526169 42.624164 73.189488 124.424222
2025-11-23 2.759061 6.049403 12.073897 23.331360 43.043601 75.056922 129.422752
2025-11-30 2.591747 5.838685 11.910844 23.463297 44.011106 77.830622 135.949735
2025-12-07 2.507690 5.786927 12.035376 24.113036 45.891890 82.158977 145.132521
2025-12-14 2.315862 5.496102 11.688933 23.880040 46.213175 83.904672 150.129862
2025-12-21 2.046687 5.016004 10.943363 22.857018 45.075114 83.142649 150.922655
2025-12-28 1.991595 4.992616 11.088290 23.519154 46.991005 87.628722 160.650763